Gold Price Forecast 2026: Where JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Deutsche Bank and SocGen Stand Against a $4,000 Market

In January, several banks published a gold price forecast for 2026 of $6,000 an ounce. Ten months on, all five banks covered here have cut their near-term numbers. Gold futures closed at $4,007.90 on Friday, October 23, 2026, the latest close as of October 25, according to Yahoo Finance's COMEX front-month (GC=F) chart data. Below, each bank's latest dated forecast we could confirm as of October 25, 2026 is set against that price. The forecasts use different horizons, and some are averages, so they are not directly comparable.

Where the price stands

Spot gold hit a record of $5,589.38 an ounce on January 29, 2026, before the war in the Middle East raised the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar (CNBC, Aug. 4, 2026). The World Bank's monthly spot average was $4,319 in September 2026, down from $4,876 in the first quarter (World Bank Pink Sheet, Oct. 2, 2026).

The banks, target by target

Deutsche Bank. On January 26, 2026, Deutsche Bank forecast gold at $6,000 in 2026, according to a Reuters list of bank forecasts (Business Standard/Reuters, May 18, 2026). In a note published August 3, it kept its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast of $4,600 (investingLive, Aug. 3, 2026) and put gold's fair value at around $4,700 by year-end (CNBC). Its 12-month forecast published September 10 was $5,000 (CNBC-e, Sept. 10, 2026). That is about 25% above the October 23 close. We found no newer Deutsche Bank target as of October 25.

Société Générale. SocGen's January 26 call was $6,000 by the end of 2026 (same Reuters list). By September 18 its forecasts were $4,750 for the fourth quarter and $4,500 for the 2026 average, rising to $5,000 by the second quarter of 2027 (Kitco News, Sept. 18, 2026). We found no later SocGen price-forecast change as of October 25.

Bank of America. BofA's commodities team raised its 2026 forecast to $5,000 in October 2025. The $6,000 figure attached to the bank in January came from strategist Michael Hartnett. He wrote that the average gain in past bull markets "would imply gold reaching $6,000 by spring" (FXStreet/Money Metals, Jan. 26, 2026). On October 14, 2026, BofA's analysts forecast a $4,000 average for the fourth quarter and $4,813 for 2027 (Investing.com, Oct. 14, 2026). That is roughly where the market closed on October 23.

J.P. Morgan. On May 18, 2026, JPMorgan cut its 2026 average forecast to $5,243 from $5,708 (Reuters list above). Its research page dated June 9 forecast a $6,000 average in the fourth quarter of 2026, rising toward $6,300 by the end of 2027 (J.P. Morgan Global Research). On July 3, the bank cut its outlook to $4,300 for the third quarter and $4,500 for the fourth quarter, said the risks to that forecast skewed to the downside, and kept a constructive view for 2027 (Reuters via The Business Times, July 4, 2026). The $4,500 fourth-quarter figure is about 12% above the October 23 close. We found no later public revision as of October 25; the public research page still shows the June figures.

Goldman Sachs. In a note reported September 23, Goldman trimmed its end-2026 fair value to $4,650 from $4,900 and kept a $5,400 target for the end of 2027. It said Fed rate hikes would slow, rather than end, the rise (investingLive, Sept. 23, 2026). In a note reported October 23, Goldman kept both figures but said a September drop in demand for gold call options "implies downside risk to our end-2026 forecast of $4,650" (ExchangeRates.org.uk, Oct. 23, 2026). The $4,650 figure is about 16% above the October 23 close.

What the banks point to

The reasons have shifted since January. BofA cites weak physical demand, high energy prices and the outlook for US rates. Goldman points to central bank buying. SocGen argues that central banks raising rates are unlikely to get ahead of inflation, and it notes that ETF flows are returning. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, a sharp recovery after a slow first quarter (WGC, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026, July 30, 2026).

What it means for Canadian producers

Producers' costs are well below even the lowest of these forecasts:

• Agnico Eagle (Detour Lake, Canadian Malartic) reported second-quarter 2026 all-in sustaining costs of $1,459 an ounce on a by-product basis and an average realized price of $4,483. Its 2026 AISC guidance is $1,400 to $1,550 (Agnico Eagle Q2 2026 MD&A, July 29, 2026).
• Kinross reported attributable AISC of $1,821 per gold-equivalent ounce sold in the quarter, with the same $4,483 realized price (Kinross Q2 2026 release, July 29, 2026).

None of the five banks still has a published $6,000 call for 2026; their latest fourth-quarter or year-end figures range from $4,000 (BofA) to $4,750 (SocGen). At the October 23 close, these miners' margins depend less on where those forecasts land than on whether gold holds near $4,000. Any forecast can miss, and none of these figures predicts returns. For more, see our gold hub, US coverage and company profiles.

How we checked this: AI-drafted from the sources linked above and checked against them by our AI editor.